事故预测方法研究述评

将事故预测方法归纳为情景分析法、回归预测法、时间预测法、马尔可夫链状预测法、灰色预测法和非线性预测法6大类,并进行分析和比较.结果表明:1)目前的预测方法大多针对各自行业部门,因此采用自身相适应的预测方法和提高预测精度是事故预测的关键;2)剔除随机性和偶然性,提取异常点和异质性是工业事故进行预测建模的依据;3)系统安全是一个动态随机的非线性过程,应将定性与定量、线性与非线性、静态与动态预测方法相结合,进行组合预测才有可能实现最优预测;4)基于状态预测的事故优生理念,是未来事故预测理论的发展趋势.     

社会和谐与可持续发展

本文运用系统科学原理阐释了社会和谐的内涵,指出社会和谐须以人与自然和谐为基础,以人与人之间的平等、友爱和同合作为表征,其构建与实现应遵从人类社会的演化规律,依赖予在把握人类社会需求演绎、协同人与自然关系的基础上推动生产力的高效有序发展和自然资源、生态环境的可持续支持.进而从可持续发展角度,提出了人与自然和谐的"双剩余理论",以揭示其间的供瓣枧理和协同准则;推导出了社会收益分配的相对公平系数,以衡量人与人公平要求下的社会和谐.针对国情和战略目标要求,提出了以加强小城镇建设为轴心的城市、小城镇与农村人流、物流、财流和信息流合理聚散的"三元结构"发展模式,以促进我国和谐社会的建设和可持续发展战略的有序实践.     

Thermal conversion of rice husks and sawdust to liquid fuel

The paper focuses on studying the conversion of rice husks and sawdust into liquid fuel. Rice husks, sawdust and their mixture are pyrolyzed at temperatures between 420 and 540 degrees C, and the main product of liquid fuel is obtained. The experimental result shows that the yield of liquid fuel depends on various factors such as feedstock and temperature. The maximum yields for rice husks, sawdust and their mixture are 56%, 61% and 60% at 465, 490 and 475 degrees C, respectively. Analyses with GC-MS and other apparatus show that the liquid fuel is a complicated compound with low caloric value and can be directly used as a fuel oil for combustion in a boiler or a furnace without any upgrading. Alternatively, the fuel can be refined to be used by vehicles.     

蚯蚓生态滤池处理农村生活污水现场试验研究

对蚯蚓生态滤池处理太湖流域农村生活污水进行现场试验研究.通过对蚯蚓同化容量与污染负荷进行单因素分析,得出蚯蚓生态滤池处理农村生活污水的运行参数与运行方式,并据此进行连续运行试验.结果表明,在表面水力负荷1 m3/(m2*d)、湿干比(布水时间和落干时间之比)1∶3、蚯蚓负荷(以单位体积填料中蚯蚓的质量计)12.5 g/L的条件下,蚯蚓生态滤池处理农村生活污水具有可行性与高效性,单级系统的COD、总氮、氨氮和总磷的去除率分别在81%、66%、82%和89%左右.改进蚯蚓床填料、设计通风结构和采取适宜运行方式,是蚯蚓生态滤池成功应用于农村生活污水处理的三大重要因素.     

甘孜州草地退化的社会经济驱动力研究——以理塘县为例

在分析甘孜州草地退化特征的基础上，利用因子分析和灰色关联分析的原理与方法建立了草地退化的社会经济驱动力模型，结合理塘县的实际对草地退化的主要社会经济驱动因子及驱动力的大小进行了研究。结果表明，牲畜数量、人口数量、产业结构、草地保护政策执行情况、草场围栏面积以及牧民入均纯收入是草地退化的主要社会经济驱动因子。在此基础上，探讨了防止草地进一步退化的对策与措施。     

丹巴县地质灾害发育特征及成因探讨

在对丹巴县地质灾害进行详细调查的基础上，结合该县近年来地质灾害的发育情况，对丹巴县地质灾害的发育特征和形成原因进行了简要的分析。研究表明，该县地质灾害具有爆发频率高、突发性强、危害大、隐蔽性强的特点，其分布发育与区内独特的自然地理格局和复杂的地质环境条件密切相关，且近年来该县地质灾害的爆发处在一个活跃期。     

Comparative on Causes and Accumulation of Selenium in the Tree-rings Ambient High-selenium Coal Combustion Area from Yutangba, Hubei, China

Toxic trace elements emitted during coal combustion are the main sources of air pollution. They are released into the atmosphere mainly in the forms of fine ash, smoke and flue, and thus adversely affect plant, animal and human health. Selenium is one of toxic and the most volatile in coal. Large amount of atmospheric emission of selenium, as well as selenium present and scrubber stockpiles in ash may create serious environmental problems. In the paper, on the basis of investigating the abundance and distribution of selenium in plant-rings during recent 20 years, the bioaccumulation of selenium is explained that selenium in plant, which were collected from the village of selenium-rich coal combustion, is much higher than that in plants collected away from the village of selenium-rich coal combustion. The main origins of selenium are selenium-rich coal combustion and high-selenium rock weathered. The selenium recycle by food chain and selenium will accumulate and redistribute in environments.     

中国实施生态旅游认证的机遇与挑战

在界定生态旅游认证、分析建立生态旅游认证体系意义的基础上．对绿色环球21、澳大利亚的NEAP、厄瓜多尔的Smart Voyager等目前国际知名的认证体系进行了介绍．重点分析了中国实施生态旅游认证的机遇和面临的挑战，并对我国建立生态旅游认证体系的必要性及相关问题提出了建议。     

Study on the regional atomized dust suppression technological system based on the measured law of dust concentration distribution in longwall fully mechanized mining faces

Environment, Development and Sustainability - In order to reveal the distribution and migration law of downwind and upwind coal cutting, total dust (TD) and respirable dust (RD) concentration...